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Popular Nationalism and War (Oxford University Press, 2023) 


Does nationalism lead to interstate war? This book challenges the widely held assumption that nationalism causes war and systematically investigates how popular nationalism affects a country’s decision to launch military aggression. The book makes a novel and provocative claim that popular nationalism has not only a conflict-inducing effect but also a restraining one, and identifies the conditions under which popular nationalism triggers interstate violence. Specifically, the book asserts that popular nationalism leads to war only when leaders who confront popular nationalism are very confident about their chance of achieving complete victory in conflict or they are politically vulnerable. In the absence of these two conditions, popular nationalism has a restraining effect, pushing leaders toward maintaining the status quo and avoiding the use of force. The book first demonstrates the restraining effect of popular nationalism through a survey experiment conducted in China and an in-depth case study on the territorial dispute between China and Japan in the East China Sea. It then offers comprehensive historical and contemporary analyses of when popular nationalism’s restraining effect can turn into a conflict-inducing one through case studies on the War of 1812 and the Falklands War. The book provides important insights into whether popular nationalism can put great powers like China and the United States on a collision course, as well as broad policy implications for preventing war driven by popular nationalism.






Introduction

 

I .Theoretical Foundations

 

Chapter 1. Nationalistic Sentiments and Mass Foreign Policy Preferences

Chapter 2.  Popular Nationalism, Political Elites’ Strategic Calculations, and Conflict  Initiation 

 

II. The Restraining Effect of Popular Nationalism: Evidence from China

  

Chapter 3. Chinese Nationalistic Sentiments and Mass Foreign Policy Preferences: Evidence from Survey Experiment

Chapter 4. Chinese Popular Nationalism and the Territorial Dispute with Japan

 

III .When Does Popular Nationalism’s Restraining Effect Turn into a Conflict-Inducing One? Lessons from History

 

Chapter 5. Illusion of Complete Victory: Argentine Popular Nationalism and the Falklands War 

Chapter 6. Domestic Political Vulnerability and Unwanted War: American Popular Nationalism and the War of 1812

 

Conclusion